New Moon to be top movie of 2009?

There is an article in the Examiner this morning about how it is quite possible that New Moon will be this year's top film. And no wonder, The Twilight Saga has an enormous fan base, all over the world. Here is what the article said:

"When the concept of The Twilight Saga: New Moon becoming the number one film of 2009 was introduced here, there were a number of commentators who laughed (or the internet equivalent thereof) at the idea.

Yet, the fact remains that the Twilight series films are a source of perpetual domination in the realm of accomplishment right now - by anyone's standards, really.

Take VOD, for instance. Video on Demand is a service that many cable providers offer their subscribers where videos are eligible for automatic in-home playing with a moderate purchase price. Though Twilight was released to DVD back in March of this year, many cable services still house that film in their current on demand programming list thanks to the continuing interest of their users. According to Video Business, Twilight "was the top VOD rental for the first six months of the year, and the studio said earlier this month that it had done more than 14 million transactions on all rental formats." The film, according to that source, was "re-released on VOD in October to capitalize on the upcoming release of sequel New Moon in theaters, [and] has since overtaken Gran Torino to reclaim its title" as the number one VOD-rented film of 2009.

On demand rentals aren't the only category of in-home viewing numbers that Twilight toppled. According to Variety, the film "is still considered the overall No. 1 title of 2009, with more than 8 million DVD/Blu-ray discs sold since March 21, according to the studio. 'Twilight' moved 5.2 million DVD/Blu-ray copies in the U.S. in its first week of release." You remember that weekend, don't you? It was when the jaws of critics and nay-sayers dropped around the world . . . for the second time. The DVD, too, has been re-released in modified format (a single-disc version); perhaps, this will ensure its continued position in that category as well.

The list isn't even limited to the film itself. There was a lot of heat coming off of the fact that Michael Buble's album stayed at number one for a while shortly after The Twilight Saga: New Moon's soundtrack released. As HitFix pointed out, though, that didn't last long. The Twilight Saga: New Moon's official soundtrack is currently atop the billboard charts, and the official Twilight twitter issued thanks to Twilight fans for making it happen.

[NEW MOON Soundtrack from @AtlanticRecords and @chopshopmusic is #1 this week! Thanks to all the twihards out there for your support!]

So, circling back to the original thesis offered - now a bit more relevant with the impending release of the film (less than a month!) - could The Twilight Saga: New Moon be the number one film of 2009? Well, a look at the numbers might be a good start.

For starters, the film currently weighing in as the highest total gross heavy-hitter film for 2009 is Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen, with a very impressive $402 million. Transformers was both released in theaters and to DVD/Blu-ray this year. When released to DVD/Blu-ray, as the above-referenced Variety article pointed out, it brought in sales of over 7.5 million copies. Still, it couldn't break Twilight's stance as the number one DVD/Blu-ray sales film for the year (yet, at least). Following is Harry Potter And The Half-Blood Prince whose midnight release sales were in the mega-millions and whose total gross is a little over $300 million.

So, basically, if The Twilight Saga: New Moon's one and a half months of availability in 2009 can bring in roughly 100 million viewers, it could certainly see victory on this chart as well; but will it?"

What do you think? Will New Moon dominate this year? I think yes, yes it will :)

--Crystal